Monday, November 10, 2008

If this isn't a case for electoral reform...

...I don't know what is? From Andrew Coyne's Blog:

"I’ve seen this graph in a couple of places, but as someone sent it to me I’ll post it here. It combines falling turnout with growing electoral fragmentation to track the decline over successive federal elections in the winning party’s “mandate,” expressed not as a share of the popular vote, but of the overall electorate. (Not sure if this means registered voters, or the voting-age population, but it doesn’t make a huge difference either way.)

I haven’t checked the numbers, but they look about right. It’s a pretty depressing picture: governments are now claiming “mandates” with the support of barely two voters in 10." (H/T nbpolitico)


At Nov 10, 2008, 11:27:00 AM , Blogger Rob said...

If you eliminate the cloud of results pre-1984, the regression becomes much more linear with a sharper slope.

Notice that great leaders in 1958, 1968, and 1984 are awarded large chunks of the electorate. Perhaps the issue is not voter apathy, but general lack of leadership. Stephen Harper is certainly a competent prime minister, but he'll never set a room on fire.

At Nov 10, 2008, 12:24:00 PM , Blogger NB taxpayer said...

True. Incrementalism is not a bad thing when you think of the strides that have to be made so that the conservatives are a true alternative (every election) on the right.

In years past, the Tories were a couple of blips on the screen for 70 years while the Liberals were the natural governors of the state.

One just has to look at the political partisan appointments in the bureaucracy and senate which tilt in the favour of the Liberals. That won't change in one mandate, two or even three.

At Nov 10, 2008, 1:49:00 PM , Anonymous bill said...

'84 and '58. Two of the largest majorities in the land respectively. They both won big in Quebec. If Harper can do that, he may be able to match them.

If he can't he's stuck with a large minority, small majority.

At Dec 6, 2008, 10:39:00 AM , Anonymous EM said...

Rob, try the opposite. If you ignore the data post 1990, the trend is flat.

The Bloc Quebecois was founded in 1990. Their goal is to make Canada dysfunctional so that they can claim it is.

I say Canada should quick Quebec out.


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