Super Duper Giga Tsunami Tuesday Predictions

Here are my final "delegate count" predictions (*shared google spreadsheet). I have Hillary and Obama pretty much in a neck and neck tie. Although, as I see CBS is reporting, Hillary is substantially ahead in the Super Tuesday states:

Among voters in those states, she leads Obama, 49 percent to 31 percent, with 16 percent still undecided.

Clinton also holds a big edge on the issue of most concern to Democratic voters: the economy. Nearly 60 percent say she would do a better job of managing the economy than Obama. However, more than two-thirds of Democratic voters see the policy differences between the two candidates as minor.

I think the last I heard was that close to 50 per cent have already voted in advanced polls in the state of California. And since Obama has made a late surge, this could be a huge factor, especially since there are 370 delegates up for grabs. McClatchy-MSNBC polled 9 states, and found Hillary ahead in all but Georgia. (Remember the maps showing the Florida counties won by Obama? All 9 were in the most northern part of the state, 7 bordered on Georgia and 1 on Alabama.)

Furthermore, while I think Hillary will win California, New Jersey and New York (where the Latino vote is huge), I still see Obama picking up a lot of delegates and I expect he will win some other states besides Georgia and Illinois, despite what the polls say.

However, for this to happen, voter turnout will be a key factor because of the manner in which Democratic delegates are counted. In other words, Obama is hoping to attract a significant amount of ppl under 35 years of age, not to mention, a high African American turnout.

Final Predictions: Neither Hillary nor Obama will clinch the nomination tonight. Obama's got a lot of momentum and is getting a lot more media play than Hillary (and is winning the endoesement battle). But he also has a lot of ground to catch up. I think it will be very close.

As for the Republican side, not as exciting folks. I think McCain will pick up well over half the 1,008 delegates that are up for grabs. In other words, Super Tuesday will be nothing more than a coronation for the Arizona Senator. Which may be an advantage for the GOP as they can sit back for a few weeks and observe the brutal bloodbath which will likely ensue between Hillbilly and Obama.

*not including American Samoa and Democrats Abroad. Totals were an estimate of District Level Delegates, At-Large Delegates, PLEO Delegates (Pledge). See nbpolitico for more state-by-state breakdowns.