Iowa Caucuses

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Iowa voters tomorrow night will go to their local precinct caucuses to cast their ballots for the presidential candidate of their choice. Let's just say, the winner is hardly guaranteed his/her party's nomination, not to mention, it's quite possible that neither Iowa winner will come out as the favorite for the nomination -- but the caucuses will certainly be the end of the road for some candidates. Anyway, here are some excellent analyses of the races in both parties (with my take as well ) and how things will shape up in the end:

Democrats

• The Edwards camp has released a memo which averages the nine Iowa polls released since Christmas (MSNBC/McClatchy, Strategic Vision, Insider Advantage, the average of the Zogby/C-SPAN tracking survey, Research 2000, another Strategic Vision, Des Moines Register, CNN, and Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg). As you can see, it's way too close to call as the average has Sen. Hillary Clinton at 28.2%, Sen. Barack Obama at 27.5%, and John Edwards at 26.3%. Athough cold weather may not be a factor [after all] in favour of Edwards (as I once predicted).


• I don't often agree with what Markos Moulitsas says or predicts over at the Daily Kos, but he is dead on about Joe Biden: "This is the only second-tier candidate that stands out, and has a shot of breaking into the top three. He is confident, knowledgable, humoress, and passionate about politics. In addition, his Iraq plan shows to people that he knows about this conflict more than any other candidate. These factors make it very easy for people to caucus for him." I caught Biden's speech to potential caucus goes on CNN's Ballot Bowl yesterday afternoon and I was seriously impressed (I'm sure NBpolitico would be happy to hear that his predictions/scenerios on both sides are still alive). If he ends up sitting around 14 to 15 per cent in Iowa, he could end up as a longshot after all instead of just throwing his support over to a desparate Hillary campaign after NH.


• If I'm Obama, I wouldn't be all that happy with this endorsement, especially since he already has the strongest organization on the ground: "Kucinich said Tuesday that he would like his supporters to back Obama in places where they are not in large enough numbers to be viable." It's funny, but that sounds an aweful lot like the deal Dion made with Elizabeth May in Central Nova.


• The pre-spinning coming outta Hillary's camp makes me think that their insider tracking has them with a good shot at winning the caucus or at the very least coming second. This undersell will almost all but ensure Hillary of momentum going into New Hampshire. Although, if she is sitting in third (like many polls have shown), this strategy has the potential to backfire if a guy like Biden surges into third due to apathy amongst her supporters created by such a statement. I just don't think her strategist are that careless.

My Predictions:

1st Place: John Edwards
2nd Place: Hillary Clinton
3rd Place: Barack Obama
4th Place: Joe Biden
5th Place: Bill Richardson

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Republicans

• I agree with Bill Kristol's Iowa predictions, "Ron Paul will outperform his poll numbers, but McCain should still be able to take third on the GOP side[...]" However, a Romney victory (which is looking more likely) will cause a few problems for John McCain's message in NH (even if he is on a roll).


• There has been a lot of talk about McCain's come back to Iowa, Huckabee's incredible surge and Romney's flip flopping, but where the heck is Rudy?? Can his wacky nomination strategy actually work?? Michael Barone actually thinks it could, but he also believes that individuals like Giuliani "who live by the delegate count" could actually "die by the delegate count" as well. As for me, his absence these last few weeks in key primary states has hurt him way to much (even nationally). I think he's done.


• One of the key rules in campaign strategy is if you're going to run an attack ad against your opponent, make sure you are willing to stick by it. Because pulling it not only damages your credibility and your campaign, but it also makes it difficult for you to raise money down the road. Let's just say this campaign flap by Huckabee could result in more damage than you think as [he] has a lot riding on Iowa. If he loses, he can all but pack it in. But if he wins, he could possibly hang in there a bit longer with the big boys (Romney and McCain). But he must win big.

My predictions:

1st Place: Mitt Romney
2nd Place: Mike Huckabee
3rd Place: John McCain
4th Place: Ron Paul
5th Place: Fred Thompson