Not the same as in '78

Over the weekend, I heard a few of my Liberal friends talking about how the six possible by-election in the fall would be just like the seven October by-elections of 1978. (which I believe were held across Ontario and the governing party lost all seven?) Now I will admit, there are a few similarities today to that fateful October evening some 29 years ago. Beginning with the fact that the Liberals previously held four of the six ridings in the 39th parliament. (they held five of the seven back in '78)

However, things were much different back then. As some of you may very well remember, in 1978, the anti-Trudeau sentiment was rising at a feverish pace. His administration had made some difficult and unpopular decisions, not to mention, the predators in his own party were out in full force to take him out. In other words, they knew what was at stake if the PM were to lose those by-elections and, in turn, some party members chose to either sit on their hands or work against their own party candidates so as to sink their leaders chances in the next general election.

Now as for PM Harper, he is still at the early stages of his political mandate and the tension amongst Canadians towards him and his party are not as strong as they were for Trudeau back in '78. Not to mention, the internal workings of the Conservative party appear to be intact. (although anti-Harper sentiments are starting to resonate [a bit] amongst his core base)

Plus, he [Harper] has absolutely nothing to lose since his party held none of the six ridings which are up for grabs. Furthermore, his popularity is still much higher than that of the Leader of the Official Opposition. (whose party is still plagued by scandal) Morover, of all the party leaders in parliament, Dion and Duceppe have the most to lose in these up-and-coming by-elections as the Bloc previously held two of the seats and the Liberals five. As well, they have both suffered some serious parliamentary defeats at the hands of the Harper government which has led to some unrest within both their caucuses.

To make a long story short, the bottom line here is that it's a total win-win for Harper because, even if his party is shut out in these by-elections, he will still come out unscathed amongst his supporters.